EMC's Model Evaluation Group

 The Model Evaluation Group (MEG) community is established to interact with the user community on issues related to the forecast systems of NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).    It is used to discuss overall model performance and provide feedback on operational and parallel versions of the models which comprise the production suite.

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RE: Beryl?

Perhaps it's not necessary to make a post, but at 00Z this evening, will be the valid time for these prior forecasts suggesting something organized in the Gulf.    

RE: TEST of FV3 Evaluation function account.

TEST Reply in Gmail.  Again, for FV3 Evaluation forum subscribers in VLab, please pardon the spam. Mike Churma On Wed, Jun 13, 2018 at 2:15 PM, Michael Churma <...

RE: TEST of FV3 Evaluation function account.

TEST reply in FV3 Evaluation forum

TEST of FV3 Evaluation function account.

This is a test of the new  fv3gfs-feedback.vlab@noaa.gov function account, tied to the FV3 evaluation forum category in VLab's EMC Model Evaluation Group.  Users will be able to use that...

Tuesday Outage

Due to computer upgrades, EMC will not be able to run the FV3GFS in real-time  between 12z Tuesday June 12 and 12z Wednesday June 13 .   Once the outage is completed, the missed...

RE: Beryl?

I see the 12Z ECM has a few dots plotted here in this visual, and, if anything, is over the inland spine of central America. ...

RE: Beryl?

Thanks, Jack.    The GFS runs today continue to show a fairly significant system in the northern Gulf by day 8.    The FV3 runs all have a system, but it's much, much weaker.    The Canadian...

RE: Beryl?

It was brought to my attention, by a Florida-based scientist, that if one changes the valid time to be 36 hours earlier, 00Z Jun 14 , and creates the same GFS vs FV3 comparison forecast trend...

gfs_fv3.sfcwind_mslp.conus.trend (1).gif

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gfs.sfcwind_mslp.conus.trend (1).gif

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Beryl?

Fresh off/after Geoff and Tracey's summary of the GFS and FV3 performance for Alberto on today's MEG call, Greg Patrick brought to my attention, DURING the MEG call, that the GFS is at it...

gfs_fv3.sfcwind_mslp.conus.trend.gif

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gfs.sfcwind_mslp.conus.trend.gif

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RE: SSTs in FV3GFS

Thanks, Jack, for those nice examples.   I'm pleased to report that EMC has corrected the SST problem as of the 18z cycle today (May 25).   The attached comparisons of skin temp (SST over...

RE: SSTs in FV3GFS

Thanks again for the notice, and I'm sure you'll provide all kinds of details on the MEG call today, but as I was poking around looking at Alberto-related fields, I made a Total Precip Accum...

gfs.qpf_acc.conus.trend_Alberto.gif

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gfs_fv3.qpf_acc.conus.trend_Alberto.gif

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SSTs in FV3GFS

     There is a major problem with warm SSTs in the northern Gulf in the FV3GFS parallel;  EMC discovered the issue during this past weekend, and it has been receiving a lot of attention in...

RE: FV3 CAPE performance example

Jack, (17 May 2018-550PM EDT) - Thanks for providing sample from these ultra-extended forecast periods (384 hr!). We noticed the 240hr 00Z/17 May suite of guidance had "lows" in various...

Convectively-induced FV3 temperature drops

Last Friday (May 11), a colleague was questioning the models forecasting near 100 MaxTs in the vicinity of Austin to close out this week (~May 17/18).  In taking a look at the Temperature...