EMC's Model Evaluation Group

 The Model Evaluation Group (MEG) community is established to interact with the user community on issues related to the forecast systems of NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).    It is used to discuss overall model performance and provide feedback on operational and parallel versions of the models which comprise the production suite.

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00Z 2-m Temps consistently colder in FV3 over higher terrain

00Z 2-m Temps consistently colder in FV3 over higher terrain
10/19/17 2:52 PM

I'm seeing a consistent difference between the GFS and FV3 for 2-m temperature forecasts for 00Z times over higher terrain (GFS is warmer than FV3).

I actually find it kind of nice in Corey's comparison page to just step through with the arrow keys - and you'll see how the difference field jumps up every 8th frame over the western U.S. - on the forecast times that land on 00Z - and then jumps back down on the next frame.

I've attached the 21hr, 24hr, and 27hr comparisons from the 00Z run on the 19th - but other runs show very similar "jumps" at 00Z valid times.  The other forecast differences move through space over time - but this warmer difference always pops back up to a certain extent over the western U.S. at the 00Z forecast times.