EMC's Model Evaluation Group

 The Model Evaluation Group (MEG) community is established to interact with the user community on issues related to the forecast systems of NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).    It is used to discuss overall model performance and provide feedback on operational and parallel versions of the models which comprise the production suite.

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General
# of Categories:
2
# of Posts:
19
# of Participants:
6
Top Posters
 
Corey Guastini
Rank: Youngling
Posts: 6
Join Date: 5/5/15
Jack Settelmaier
Rank: Youngling
Posts: 5
Join Date: 11/2/12
Glenn White
Rank: Youngling
Posts: 3
Join Date: 1/12/15
Timothy Barker
Rank: Youngling
Posts: 2
Join Date: 9/20/12
Steven Zubrick
Rank: Youngling
Posts: 2
Join Date: 9/25/12
Mark Klein
Rank: Youngling
Posts: 1
Join Date: 4/15/15

What's New What's New

RE: More Southern snow?

Thought I would toss in some "verification" for this event, since I captured some images off my GIS display. It looks like the snowfall amounts DID slip east into western PA, as the...

More Southern snow?

Noting today, from the Jan 10th, 00Z FV3 at the 90-hr forecast time step, the FV3 has more snow extending south across central TN and even into northern Alabama.  Some of the difference...

RE: FV3 "snowy" forecast for Mid-Atlantic Dec 8-9, 2017

Yes On Thu, Dec 14, 2017 at 2:50 PM, VLab Notifications < VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov > wrote: And can you see this graphic included in my email reply? On Thu, Dec 14,...

RE: FV3 "snowy" forecast for Mid-Atlantic Dec 8-9, 2017

And can you see this graphic included in my email reply? On Thu, Dec 14, 2017 at 1:46 PM, VLab Notifications < VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov > wrote: Great graphic! On Thu,...

RE: FV3 "snowy" forecast for Mid-Atlantic Dec 8-9, 2017

Great graphic! On Thu, Dec 14, 2017 at 1:43 PM, VLab Notifications < VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov > wrote: Verification map off snow for GA for Dec 7-8, 2017.   -- Steven Zubrick...

RE: FV3 "snowy" forecast for Mid-Atlantic Dec 8-9, 2017

This is a good case. The latest model runs (00Z 8 December GFS, NAM, and NAM nest) have a snowier solution than we were seeing just this morning, and especially compared to the 00Z 7 December...

FV3 "snowy" forecast for Mid-Atlantic Dec 8-9, 2017

A comparison of GFS vs FV3 fields of  "24-hr snowfall" has shown some wide differences across the Mid-Atlantic region for the valid 24hr time period  06Z-06Z Dec 8-9, 2017. The position...

RE: 00Z 11/15 forecast

The models, in general, are flip-flopping a lot with this time period (which happens to be right before Thanksgiving and the biggest travel day of the year...). The 06Z runs of the GFS/FV3 are...

00Z 11/15 forecast

Interesting forecast to review early next week.  Pretty big difference in the Day 6 forecast between FV3 and GFS, with the pattern over the CONUS.  Western ridge/central US trough...

RE: 00Z 2-m Temps consistently colder in FV3 over higher terrain

The front pushing through is a neat case. Perhaps related to Jack's post showing colder temperatures pushing south in the GFS, the GFS also has more snow along the southern end of the boundary...

RE: 00Z 2-m Temps consistently colder in FV3 over higher terrain

Here's a case where the GFS is COLDER than the FV3, if you look at the forecast 2-meter Temps over the Appalachians for the strong cold front forecast to push through the mid Atlantic late this...

RE: 00Z 2-m Temps consistently colder in FV3 over higher terrain

A little bit of follow-up: there were some changes to EMC's FV3 runs on 7 September, but they affected primarily cloud water and stratospheric temperature and winds. I think this 00Z behavior may...

GFS-FV3 Evaluation Links

GFS-FV3 Evaluation Links Statistical criteria and fields for evaluation Corey's GFS - FV3 Comparison web site

GFS-FV3 Model Documentation

GFS-FV3 Model Documentation A Brief Overview of the FV3 Dynamical Core Fundamentals of GFDL's FV3 Dynamical Core (more in-depth documentation)

GFS-FV3 Model Documentation

RE: 00Z 2-m Temps consistently colder in FV3 over higher terrain

Wow, those are large differences. The site has an archive back to the end of August. It's hit-or-miss which cycles are available, but the 12Z 24 August cycle is there for example, and it does not...

00Z 2-m Temps consistently colder in FV3 over higher terrain

I'm seeing a consistent difference between the GFS and FV3 for 2-m temperature forecasts for 00Z times over higher terrain (GFS is warmer than FV3). I...

Precipitation in FV3 vs GFS

One difference between the FV3 and the GFS is in the smoothness of precipitation. The FV3 has a much smoother depiction of accumulated precipitation. The following comparison image uses the same...