GFS MOS Parallel Evaluation 2007

2007 Parallel GFS MOS Evaluation

The GFS MOS forecast equations have been applied to output from NCEP's parallel runs of the GFS model. A comparative verification was perfomed using parallel GFS and operational GFS MOS guidance from July 1st through October 31st, 2005, and September 1st, 2006 through March 31st, 2007. Warm-season verification scores were calculated from data from July - September, 2005 and September 2006. Cool-season verification scores were calculated from data from October 2005 and October 2006 - March 2007. Verification scores are presented for maximum, minimum, and 2-m temperature, dew point, probability of precipitation (POP), wind speed and direction, total sky cover, ceiling height, and visibility.

Verification Plots

 

Element Cool Season Plots (Images) Warm Season Plots (Images)
Maxiumum Temperature  All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Minimum Temperature  All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
2-m Temperature All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Dew Point Temperature  All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
12-hr POP All Sites Brier Score
CONUS Brier Score
Alaska Brier Score
HI/PR Brier Score
All Sites Brier Score
CONUS Brier Score
Alaska Brier Score
HI/PR Brier Score
Wind Speed All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Wind Direction All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites % of errors < 30 deg.
CONUS % of errors < 30 deg.
Alaska % of errors < 30 deg.
HI/PR % of errors < 30 deg.
All Sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE

All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites % of errors < 30 deg.
CONUS % of errors < 30 deg.
Alaska % of errors < 30 deg.
HI/PR % of errors < 30 deg.
Ceiling Height All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score

All Sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score

All Sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
Visibility All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score

All Sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score

All Sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
Sky Cover All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
All Sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS

All Sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct

MOS