GFS MOS Parallel Evaluation 2010

Parallel Evaluation of GFS MOS

On July 28, 2010, NCEP implemented a major upgrade to the Global Forecast System (GFS) model which serves as input to the GFS-based MOS guidance. MDL ran the GFS MOS in parallel for 30 days using the operational equations, applied to the parallel GFS model output. MDL evaluated the parallel GFS MOS from 14 June - 14 July, 2010, to determine the impacts of these changes to GFS MOS products. The results are shown below.

GFS MOS Parallel Testing/Evaluation Results 

Element Verification Plots (Images)
2-m Temperature Mean Absolute Error

Bias
Dewpoint Temperature Mean Absolute Error

Bias
Daytime Maximun Temperature Mean Absolute Error

Bias
Nighttime Minimum Temperature Mean Absolute Error

Bias
3-hr Probability of a Thunderstorm Brier Score

Reliability Diagram - 24-h Forecast

Reliability Diagram - 72-h Forecast
6-hr Probability of a Thunderstorm Brier Score

Reliability Diagram - 24-h Forecast

Reliability Diagram - 72-h Forecast
12-hr Probability of a Thunderstorm Brier Score

Reliability Diagram - 24-h Forecast

Reliability Diagram - 72-h Forecast
24-hr Probability of a Thunderstorm Brier Score

Reliability Diagram - 36-h Forecast

Reliability Diagram - 72-h Forecast

MOS