GFS MOS Refresh Evaluation 2009

GFS MOS 2009 Refresh Evaluation

New MOS forecast equations based on output from NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS) Model have been developed for selected weather elements: Max and Min Temperature, 2-m Temperature, Dewpoint Temperature, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Wind Gust, 24-h Snowfall Amount, Precipitation Type, Ceiling Height, and Sky Cover.

Verification Results - Year-round Elements

Element Cool Season Plots (Images) Warm Season Plots (Images)
Maximum Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Minimum Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
2-m Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Dewpoint Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Wind Speed
MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score - Alaska
Wind Direction
MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Cumulative Rel. Freq. - All Sites
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - CONUS
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Cumulative Rel. Freq. - All Sites
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - CONUS
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - Alaska
Ceiling Height Heidke Skill Score - All Sites Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Sky Cover Heidke Skill Score - CONUS Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Wind Gust
Probability of Detection (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Intensity ≥ 38 knots) - All Sites

False Alarm Ratio (Gust Event) - All Sites

Heidke Skill Score (Gust Intensities) - All Sites

Probability of Detection (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Intensity ≥ 38 knots) - All Sites

False Alarm Ratio (Gust Event) - All Sites

Heidke Skill Score (Gust Intensities) - All Sites

 

Verification Results - Cool Season Only Elements

Element Cool Season Only Plots (Images)
24-h Snowfall Amount


Bias 06Z Window - All Sites
Bias 06Z Window - CONUS
Bias 06Z Window - Alaska

Bias 18Z Window - All Sites
Bias 18Z Window - CONUS
Bias 18Z Window - Alaska

Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 06Z Window - All Sites
Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 18Z Window - All Sites

P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - All Sites
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - CONUS
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - Alaska

P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - All Sites
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - CONUS
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - Alaska

Precipitation Type
Bias (MAV) - CONUS
Bias (MAV) - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - Alaska
Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - Alaska

P-Score (MAV) - CONUS
P-Score (MAV) - Alaska
P-Score (MEX) - CONUS
P-Score (MEX) - Alaska

MOS