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Welcome to the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)! MDL conducts applied research and development for the improvement of diagnostic and prognostic weather information; data depiction and utilization; warning and forecast product preparation and dissemination; forecast evaluation; and impact-based decision support services. Projects involve physical, dynamical, and statistical applications and tools implemented on NWS operational systems. Emphasis is placed on integrated suites of guidance and products for Weather Forecast Offices, River Forecast Centers, and National Centers, and NWS Core Partners.
On February 25, the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) upgraded both the Probabilistic Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (P-ETSS) and the Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) models. The ETSS model, first launched in 1996, is a modification of the Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model to use Global Forecast System (GFS) wind and pressure input to predict storm tide (surge + tide) from extra-tropical storms. The P-ETSS model, first launched in 2017, is a coastal inundation ensemble model forced by various ensemble wind systems. An article describing the recent MDL upgrades appeared in the NWS Insider on March 18, 2021.
Dr. Jerome P. “Jess” Charba has retired from the Federal service, effective 2/28/2021, capping an MDL career which spanned nearly five decades. Jess joined MDL (then the Techniques Development Laboratory [TDL] ) in 1972 immediately after receiving his Ph.D. from the University of Oklahoma. Since then, Jess has been instrumental in applying and expanding the principles of Model Output Statistics (MOS) to subsynoptic time frames and high-resolution observed data. Many of his innovative techniques have found their way into applications now used in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) and other aspects of MDL’s statistical postprocessing efforts.
Scientists from MDL’s Statistical Modeling Division (SMD), in concert with NCEP Central Operations staff, have successfully implemented the newest version of the National Blend of Models (NBM) into regular production. NBM v4.0 represents a significant leap forward in Blend capability, most notably in that it includes a significant expansion of the amount and types of probabilistic information available to its users. In this article, we examine some of the new products and features of NBM v4.0.
This spring/summer, MDL welcomed a new group of student employees into the fold to help us with a variety of projects and to help provide them with “real-world” work experiences outside of academia. This year, however, those experiences came under some rather unusual and unforeseen circumstances, due to the onset of COVID-19 and the Lab's transition to a completely remote work environment. Despite all this, the students and their mentors alike seem to have adapted quite well. We introduce the 2020 students and their associated internship programs, and take a look at their activities and experiences with MDL.