NBM Versions - MDL
V1.0 - V2.0
The first version of the NBM was released January 6, 2016 in CONUS AWIPS 16.1.1, after Congress mandated that the NWS develop a blended model approach following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This first version used 3 models (GFS, GEFS mean, CMCE mean) and covered temperature, wind, and sky cover over the CONUS (Continental United States) region two times a day. Version 2, released November 15, 2016 in CONUS and OCONUS (outside-CONUS) AWIPS 16.2.2, added coverage over Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.
Version 3.0, released July 27th, 2017 (AWIPS 17.3.1) incorporated additional global and mesoscale models for the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains along with running hourly and providing 1-36h forecasts. Several new weather elements were added to this version such as calibrated Probability of Precipitation (6-hour) and QPF, ceiling height and visibility, and weather, snow, and ice forecasts to name a few. An exhaustive lists of weather elements added to V3.0 can be found in NWS SCN 17-59.
NBM V3.1, implemented in October 2018 (AWIPS 18.1.1), continued to incorporate additional global models (i.e.., ECMWF (deterministic and ensemble)) and mesoscale models (i.e., HRRR-Extended (1-36h guidance)) into its suite of model guidance to cover the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains. This upgrade enabled the NBM to fill existing product gaps requested by the Aviation, Fire Weather, Water Resources, and Marine NWS Service Program Offices. Prior to V3.1, NBM data was packaged in GRIB2 and only provided forecasts at gridpoints. NBM V3.1 introduced a new text product (similar to MOS-station bulletins) that provides NBM forecasts at stations. The data in these bulletins are the NBM’s nearest grid point forecast to the corresponding station. Four individual NBM text bulletin products are generated every hour, each covering different forecast horizons. For a complete discussion concerning these messages, along with an exhaustive listing weather elements added to NBM V3.1 and their dissemination times, please see NBM V3.1 SCN.
NBM Version 3.2, which is scheduled to be implemented on November 5th, 2019, will continue to fill existing product gaps requested by the Aviation, Fire Weather, Water Resources, and Marine NWS Service Program Offices. A few highlights associated with this upcoming release include: (1) The continued infusion of cutting edge science advancements in the area of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PQPF) (especially in the mountainous West) and the addition of calibrated PQPF guidance for the Alaska and Puerto Rico domains; (2) The addition of various percentile and exceedance thresholds for snowfall and ice amounts (CONUS and Alaska); (3) The addition of probabilistic daytime maximum (MaxT) and nighttime minimum percentile (MinT) guidance for the CONUS domain; (4) Uncertainty information in the form of standard deviations for MaxT, MinT, 10 m Wind Speeds, and 10 m Wind Gusts for the CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico domains; (5) The addition and improvement in aviation guidance routinely used in daily airport operational planning (including the extension of visibility and ceiling height guidance through 84 hours for Terminal Aerodrome forecasts (TAFs)); (6) The addition of new weather elements in the NBM text product along with a new probabilistic text message product. It is anticipated that these upgrades will benefit the NWS in its mission towards better Impact Decision Support Services.
Limited experimental products are currently available for view on the NBM Viewer (NOAA login required), Quick-look Images, and experimental text pages.