Probabilistic Forecast Visualization - MDL
What is Probabilistic Forecast Visualization?
The Probabilistic Forecast Visualization effort kicked off in 2017 with the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Viewer. Requested by the SSD chiefs, MDL was to prepare visualization capabilities to forecasters to assist in the determination of what is significant in the forecast, the range of possible solutions, and the potential impacts in terms of sensible weather. MDL used, as inspiration, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Ensemble Viewer, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) viewer, and ideas from the field to create the initial state of the Ensemble Viewer.
Starting in version 3.0, the National Blend of Models (NBM) was starting to transition to outputting probabilistic data. In preparation for additional probabilistic elements from the NBM, MDL hosted an NRAP partner who extended the initial GEFS effort to view the NBM data in 2018. Throughout 2018 and into 2019, MDL developed and released a few versions of the GEFS and NBM Forecast Viewers with more probabilistic viewing capabilities including meteograms, plume diagrams, wind roses, and QPF accumulation box plots. In addition, the NBM Forecast Viewer designed new capabilities to comb through maps to more quickly get a sense of model certainty of the new probabilistic NBM data. On September 18th, 2019, MDL held a VLab forum to introduce the latest instantiations of the GEFS and NBM Forecast Viewers, and discussed our plans to unify the development efforts into one Probabilistic Forecast Visualization tool that heavily utilizes AWS.