Lightning Probability - Lightning Probability - Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD)
Probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning at a given location over the next 30 minutes.
NWS: WFO, CWSU, AWC, SPC
FAA: Tower, TRACON, ARTCC, ATCSCC, AFSS
Spatial Resolution: 0.01o Latitude (~1.11 km) x 0.01o Longitude (~1.01 km at 25oN and 0.73 km at 49oN)
Temporal Resolution: 2 minutes
CG lightning probability is determined using an attribute-extraction algorithm detailed by Lakshmanan and Smith (2009) to train a model with storm properties, rather than pixel values of parameters thought to precede lightning initiation (e.g., reflectivity at -10°C). Inputs for the attribute-extraction algorithm include storm properties such as size, speed, aspect ratio, lightning density (determined using Vaisala’s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL), and reflectivity isotherms).
Lakshmanan, V., and T. Smith, 2009: Data Mining Storm Attributes from Spatial Grids. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 26, 2353–2365.